Time Period to End Energy Shortage:

Prime minister, once again has claimed to end the energy crisis within six months time. Since the current government resumed the office in 2008, there have been many claims of ending the energy crisis in the country, however unfortunately no practical aspects of these claims have ever been made public.

There has been common misconception about the completion date of the coal fired power stations across the nation. We have seen various interviews of renowned nuclear scientist Dr. Samar Mubarak Mand together with government officials that underground coal gasification facilities can start generating electricity in less than a year time without any foreign investment or technical aid.

World’s average time to connect coal fired power stations with the national grid is 4 to 5 years. This period includes time spent on engineering design, arranging billions of dollars investment, procurement of sophisticated equipment and construction.

If we work on “war footings”, as prime minister mentioned in his first speech to the current national assembly in 2008, and enable to secure foreign investment timely, electricity can not be generated using Thar coal before 2017.

Underground coal gasification team, run by respected nuclear scientists is by nature is a research and development organisation and unfortunately lacks in an organisational setup to install some of the world’s largest facilities in timely fashion. On July 16, 2009, the underground coal gasification team first claimed to generate 100MW of electricity by end of 2009. After spending two and a half years in research and development, they have only been able to establish a very small pilot plant to perform underground combustion.

As a matter of fact, underground coal combustion has yet to be proven on commercial scale and financial institutions might not be willing to fund few billion dollars without technical and commercial assurances. This becomes more significant when no such commercial scale plant exists in the world which could be used as and example to claim the commercially viability.

United States being the world’s largest; produces 342,000 MW of electricity in about 1400 plants using “conventional” combustion procedures and not through the underground combustion. China being the second largest and many other countries are producing thousands of MW energy without trying the unconventional methods.

On part of government, coal mines should be offered to the world’s renowned expert companies with transparent and clear contractual terms, so these companies can use internationally proven technologies to install coal fired power plants.

The only short/medium term solution to cover the demand and supply gap of fuel gas and electricity is to enhance speed on Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, which can be completed on fast track bringing upto 1000 MMSCFD into the national gas distribution network by 2014. This gas will be supplied cheaper than the international trade gas price.

As Iran is about to complete its part of 1,100 km pipeline from South Pars gas field to Pak-Iran border, Pakistan has yet to award the procurement and construction contract to a construction company.

A few years ago Pakistan laid down 800 km long white oil pipeline from Karachi port to Pak Arab refinery in Muzaffar Garh within one and a half year construction time. The country has therefore ample expertise available for fast construction of pipeline.

Pakistan government should keep in mind one of the agreement clauses that, if any of the two countries that caused a delay in completing the project would be liable to $200 million penalty per month after December 31, 2014.

At the same time, Pakistan government should also focus on long term solutions including Diamer Bhash dam, which can provide plenty of cheap electricity alongwith providing water security to the country’s agriculture sector.